The 'P' Word

Despite our unbeaten start to the season, there seems to still be a fair bit of negativity amongst fans at present.

One persons negativity is another’s realism I suppose, and to be fair we’ve more false dawns than Lapland lately so it’s not surprising that a lot of die hard U’s don’t want to get carried away on a tide of optimism. The main argument seems to be that eight games is not a long enough time period to judge whether a team can mount a promotion challenege. So, seeing as I have nothing better to do this morning, I’ve decided to investigate whether this is the case or not, with a little help from the mine of statistics available on our official website.

Lets go back a couple of years to our first season in the Conference. After eight games, the top of the table looked a bit like this:

Of the top five, Accrington and Grays finished 1st and 3rd respectively, while the other three – Exeter (7th), York (8th), and Dageham (10th) – all faded away. Into the play-off positions came Hereford, Halifax, and Morecombe, who after eight games occupied positions 7, 11, and 8 in the league. The mighty U’s were sitting 18th, and in the midst of a five game losing streak, having just lost 2-0 at home to Woking. We of course went on to finish comfortably in mid-table.

Moving onto last year, this is the league table at the eight game mark:

Oxford and Daggers swapped places in the final reckoning, while the other three plummeted. Grays (19th) ended up in relegation trouble, Aldershot (9th) floated along aimlessly, and Weymouth (11th) had their well documented financial problems which saw them slip out of the promotion race.

In their place, Morecombe (10th), York (7th), and Exeter (9th), all made the play offs. The less said about United’s season the better.

So I guess that’s pretty inconclusive. It seems that a couple of the early pace setters are likely to mount a sustained challenge, while the other three could slip away and be replaced by a trio of teams lurking in the pack. Looking at the standings as they are now, you would have to say that Stevenage and Torquay look best equipped to go the distance. Below those two United are one of about ten teams vying for the other three places.

Whatever happens, a good start has usually meant a top ten finish, which after last seasons troubles I’m sure most U’s would welcome with open arms.